Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths:
Strong, diversified business risk profile, especially in the textiles business
The Vardhman group is present across the textile, fibre and steel segments, which accounted for 85%, 3% and 12% of the revenue, respectively, in fiscal 2022, Though the group is a small player in the steel business, it has a strong market position in the cotton yarn and fabrics segment, backed by large capacity and established relationships with leading global apparel manufacturers. It is one of the largest spinners in the domestic market and has installed capacity of 12 lakh spindles, accounting for 2% of the total installed spindles in India. Additional capacities of around 97,000 spindles to be added by fiscal 2025 and 1,30,000 spindles by fiscal 2026 should help sustain the healthy growth momentum over the medium term.
The group is also among the top three woven fabric manufacturers in India, with grey and processed fabric capacity of 1,550 looms and 170 million metre per annum, respectively. It is an approved supplier to large retailers, such as Wal-Mart (rated 'AA/Stable/A-1+' by S&P Global Ratings), GAP (rated 'BB-/Negative' by S&P Global Ratings), Hennes & Mauritz and Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail Ltd ('CRISIL AA/Stable/CRISIL A1+'). The group is also one of the largest players in the domestic acrylic fibre market with capacity of 20,000 tonne per annum (TPA). The capacity expansion at Madhya Pradesh will augment the company’s presence in the textile sector.
Healthy operating capability
The group’s strong business position in the textiles business is reinforced by its healthy operating capability. The group has continuously invested towards enhancing its spinning productivity. Being one of the largest consumers of raw cotton in the country—it procures over 15 lakh bales per annum—the group enjoys a preferred-buyer status and considerable pricing benefits.
After an extraordinary fiscal 2022 (in terms of strong revenue growth and decadal high operating profitability), revenue growth moderated in the first 9 months of fiscal 2023 amid decline in exports and costlier cotton, resulting in lesser cotton yarn-cotton spreads. However, higher new cotton crop expected this season and likely improvement in export competitiveness amid lowering of cotton prices will increase export demand, while domestic demand should remain steady. Weak performance in the first 9 months of fiscal 2023 and stretch in realisation will result in moderation in revenue, while the operating margin may contract to 11-13% in fiscal 2023 from peak levels of ~24% in fiscal 2022. Thus, cash accrual is projected at Rs 800-900 crore this fiscal but is expected to increase to Rs 1,200-1,500 crore over the medium term, driven by healthy growth potential and strong market position.
Strong financial risk profile
Net cash accrual may decline to Rs 800-900 crore in fiscal 2023 and Rs 1,100-1,200 crore in fiscal 2024 (from Rs 1,682 in fiscal 2022), led by average operating profitability. Capex will likely remain moderate over the next three years; hence, debt should decrease to Rs 1,200-1,300 crore in fiscals 2023 and 2024 from Rs 2,144 crore currently. Better profitability and prudent debt funding will aid debt protection metrics. However, any sharp increase in short-term debt for stocking of cotton is a monitorable.
Debt/Ebitda is expected at 1.40-1.6 time in fiscal 2023 compared with 0.84 time in fiscal 2022, aided by lower debt and higher operating margin. The ratio is expected below 1.5 time in fiscal 2024 because of moderation in debt and operating profit.
Weaknesses:
Vulnerability of operating profitability to volatility in input prices
The group remains susceptible to volatility in prices of the key raw materials, cotton (which accounts for half the cost of yarn) and steel. Cotton prices are exposed to risks such as unfavourable monsoon or pest attacks and are linked to the international demand/supply scenario. Though the group benefits from the large procurement and adequate risk management systems of VTXL, profitability remains susceptible to volatility in raw material prices. Operating margin fluctuated between 13.9% and 23.9% in the past decade and was adversely affected in fiscals 2020, 2018, 2015 and 2012, when profitability was hit by slowdown in demand from China and government interventions. Similarly, in the steel business, operating margin depends on prices of raw materials, such as sponge iron, manganese and nickel.
Large working capital requirement
As cotton is a seasonal crop, its availability and quality are general issues that come up after the cotton season. Driven by its commitment to deliver quality products, the group procures cotton during the season and maintains large inventory at the end of the fiscal. Inventory levels fall by September as the stock is consumed in the first half of the fiscal. They start increasing once the cotton season begins from October and remain high in March. VTXL has receivables averaging 51 days (though they were higher at 63 days as on March 31, 2021, amid the Covid-19 pandemic). Against this, the group had payables of about 29 days.
Gross current assets were high at 275 days as on March 31, 2021, and 196 days as on March 31, 2022 (against an average of 200-220 days for the five fiscals prior to March 2022). In the steel business, dependence on the automotive industry has resulted in sizeable working capital requirement, as reflected in receivables of 59 days and inventory of 93 days as on March 31, 2022.
Modest, though improving, market position in the steel business
Through VSSL, the group has a relatively smaller presence in the steel business. As it derives over 85% of its revenue from the automotive sector, it remains susceptible to cyclicality in this segment. Better utilisation and focus on cost optimisation ensured steady performance, as reflected in the operating margin rising to 13.7% in fiscal 2022 from 2.4% in fiscal 2015.
VSSL saw one of its best quarterly performances in terms of topline and profit after tax (PAT) in the first quarter of fiscal 2023 owing to higher realisation, revived domestic and export demand and increase in volume growth. Growth is attributed to about 20% increase in volume and about 20% price increase from original equipment manufacturers. With better-than-expected recovery in demand from end-user segments, revenue should remain higher than expected. Sizeable volume but higher cost may contribute to slightly lower margin in fiscal 2023 than expected. However, cost-control measures and initiatives undertaken for better procurement will support the margin in the coming years, with debt protection metrics expected to remain comfortable over the medium term.